EV Board
Sparks +EV · America/Chicago · responsive product concept
Multi-League Runtime
Separate league evidence · shared auditability⚾ MLB ACTIVE
- Games today
- 15
- Qualified
- 3
- Publication policy
- STRONG / ELITE
- Model challenger
- Claude shadow
- Market state
- Current
🏈 NCAAF ACTIVE
- Games tracked
- 12
- Qualified
- 2
- Degraded cap
- LEAN
- Provider family
- CFBD + official
- ESPN upstream
- Disabled
🏈 NFL ACTIVE
- Games tracked
- 2
- Qualified
- 2
- Inactive evidence
- Fail closed
- Provider family
- nflverse + NFL.com
- ESPN upstream
- Disabled
Live Decision Pipeline
Strict cutoff · no automatic weaker backfillT-30Evidence refresh
T-5Final snapshot
MODELBASE_ONLY
REVIEWConsensus + adversary
SENDFinal market gate
Recent EV Signals
Example display contract| League | Matchup | Market | Model | Break-even | EV Edge | Consensus | Confidence | Max playable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Dodgers @ Padres | LAD -1.5 | 61.1% | 52.4% | +8.7 pp | 9–0 | ELITE | -1.5 · -112 |
| NCAAF | Texas @ Oklahoma | OU +3.5 | 58.8% | 52.4% | +6.4 pp | 8–1 | STRONG | OU +3 |
| NFL | Kansas City @ Buffalo | BUF -2.5 | 60.3% | 52.4% | +7.9 pp | 8–1 | STRONG | BUF -3 |
| MLB | Yankees @ Red Sox | NYY ML | 55.2% | 52.4% | +2.8 pp | 6–3 | BLOCKED | — |
Performance & Calibration
Production target: automatically graded, sample-aware reportingVerified record
- Settled sample
- —
- Hit rate
- —
- Units / ROI
- —
- Small-sample warning
- Required
Pricing quality
- Closing-line value
- Tracked
- Brier score
- Tracked
- Log loss
- Tracked
- Calibration
- Tracked
Reliability
- Provider abstains
- Tracked
- Blocking reasons
- Tracked
- Decision latency
- Tracked
- Confidence tiers
- Segmented
Consensus & Governance
AI is advisory; deterministic gates retain authority| Component | Role | Authority boundary | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| BASE_ONLY | Probability + pricing foundation | Deterministic/statistical owner | BOUND |
| Specialists | Evidence-scoped matchup analysis | No unrestricted publication authority | SCOPED |
| Adversary | Red-team contradictions | Can force fail-closed state | ACTIVE |
| Governor | Bounded deterministic decision | Eligibility is not publication by itself | BOUND |
| Publication gate | Finality + current market + playable price | Final send authority | FAIL CLOSED |