Data-driven sports picks built around probability, price, and disciplined validation.
No forced picks. No “locks.” Only plays that clear our standards.
Only finalized, published selections are graded. No model-only signals or rejected candidates are counted. The headline record counts production-model picks only; earlier preproduction results are published separately, never blended in.
See the full verified ledger — every settled official pick, losses included
No filler. If nothing qualifies for public release, we wait.
A qualified release will appear here when the board earns one.
The member experience stays simple. The deeper methodology is available if you want it.
Compare our probability with the market price.
Stress-test the thesis with league-specific evidence and review.
Recheck personnel, market freshness, and maximum playable price.
If the play does not clear the final gate, members do not see a forced pick.
Sparks +EV uses league-specific statistical baselines, point-in-time evidence, specialist analysis, adversarial review, market-freshness checks, and publication gates. The betting price is part of the selection: a good thesis at the wrong number is not the same bet.
Finalized selections preserve their original publication context so results can be reconciled against what members actually received.
Full Sparks +EV membership during the founding beta. Standard pricing begins January 1, 2027.
Beta rate through December 31, 2026. Beginning January 1, 2027, active membership is priced at $199/month. Cancel anytime before your next renewal.
Buy a selected qualified release from the free page while its published number remains actionable.
Secure checkout by Stripe. Your membership activates automatically when your payment confirms — a confirmation page alone never grants access. Manage or cancel anytime from your account. See the refund policy for cancellation and refund terms.